Bitcoin New Buyers Near Break-Even as 3-6 Month Holders Carry the Losses

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said in an Aug. 11 post that recent Bitcoin buyers are getting closer to break-even. Holders of BTC for 0-3 months now show a NUPL of -0.02, recovering from -0.13 since June. Meanwhile, holders of BTC for 3-6 months remain deeply underwater, with NUPL at -0.14, implying an average cost basis still well above the current price. The 3-6 month cohort's realized cap drawdown has also worsened to -69.6%, the lowest level in 90 days, compared with about -64% for the 0-3 month group. Adler said the near-break-even position of the newest buyers is a positive signal, but a broader recovery requires the 3-6 month group's NUPL to climb back above zero and its realized drawdown to stop widening and begin recovering. The main stress within young BTC supply, he added, has shifted from the latest entrants to the 3-6 month holders.